Some Aspects of Risk Assessment in Forest Management Planning

Uncertainty and multiple risk are typical aspects of forest management. Applications of risk analysis are surprisingly rare, in spite of the rich assortment of sophisticated forest planning tools that are available today. Forest scenario planning may reduce uncertainty in management outcomes by anticipating the future in a systematic way, thus reducing the likelihood of unexpected events. It can also improve the chance that future developments will agree with specified objectives. Numerous techniques are available for generating and evaluating scenarios of forest development. Some of them are limited to applications in simple forest production systems while others are suitable for any type of forest management. Risk is defined as the expected loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. An expected loss may be calculated as the product of the damage and its probability. Risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk management are formal procedures for quantifying, evaluating and managing risk within a given hazard domain. Applications of risk analysis in forest management planning are scanty and greater emphasis needs to be placed on hazard prediction. This article discusses some aspects of risk analysis.